Abstract

This paper uses a system of differential equations to describe the insurgency in Iraq. The system has four possible outcomes or cases: (1) The U.S.-led coalition increases in size and the number of attacks by the insurgents increases. (2) The size of the U.S.-led coalition decreases and the number of attacks by insurgents decreases. (3) The size of the U.S.-led coalition increases and the number of insurgent attacks decreases. (4) The size of the U.S.-led coalition decreases and the number of insurgent attacks increases. Which case is relevant depends on the recruitment rates of the U.S.-led coalition and insurgents as well as the combat effectiveness of both sides. Policy implications are provided.

Recommended Citation

Blank, Larry; Enomoto, Carl E.; Gegax, Douglas; McGuckin, Thomas; and Simmons, Cade (2008) "A Dynamic Model of Insurgency: The Case of the War in Iraq," Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy: Vol. 14 : Iss. 2, Article 1.
Available at: http://www.bepress.com/peps/vol14/iss2/1