Abstract

The asymmetric response of conditional variances to positive versus negative news has been traditionally modeled with threshold specifications that allow only two possible regimes: low or high volatility. In this paper, the possibility of intermediate regimes is considered and modeled with the introduction of a smooth-transition mechanism in a GARCH specification. One important property of this model is that it permits an on-off ARCH effect, in which a time series can switch from a process with constant variance to a process with time-varying variance. On testing for the existence of a smooth-transition mechanism, there are nuisance parameters that are not identified under the null hypothesis. Nevertheless, it is possible to construct a Lagrange-multiplier test that is ¬2 p -distributed. A Monte Carlo simulation shows that the test has very good size and good power. A smooth-transition GARCH specification is tested and estimated with stock returns and exchange-rate data. While a threshold model is preferred for stock returns, a smooth-transition model is more likely for exchange rates.

Recommended Citation

Gloria González-Rivera (1998) "Smooth-Transition GARCH Models ", Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics: Vol. 3: No. 2, Article 1.
http://www.bepress.com/snde/vol3/iss2/art1

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gonzalez-rivera_datacode.zip (78 kB)
Data & Code