Abstract

This paper builds on several existing empirical models that have been widely used in studying the causes of civil war and/or internal political instability. It begins by showing that some widespread models have been inadequate in both accurately modeling causal relations and time dependence among several kinds of events, and to take advantage of some highly disaggregated (daily) datasets. It does so thanks to graphical comparisons of several existing models and dataset arrangements, followed by an intuitive graphical representation of the proposed model. Then, mathematical tools are used to compare the latter to a particular Generalized Linear Model. It is shown how the proposed model can be implemented practically, and it is finally applied to the period 1962-1997 to study the impact of International Financial Institutions' Structural Adjustment Programs on the risk of civil war.

Recommended Citation

Kauffmann, Mayeul (2007) "Short Term and Event Interdependence Matter: A Political Economy Continuous Model of Civil War," Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy: Vol. 13 : Iss. 1, Article 1.
Available at: http://www.bepress.com/peps/vol13/iss1/1