Abstract

In this paper we introduce a quantitative measure of the excitement of sports games. This measure can be thought of as the variability of the expectancy of winning as a game progresses. We illustrate the concept of excitement at soccer games for which the theoretical win expectancy can be well approximated from a Poisson model of scoring. We show that in the Poisson model, higher scoring rates lead to increased expected excitement. Given a particular strength of a team, the most exciting games are expected with opponents who are slightly stronger. We apply this theory to the FIFA World Cup 2006 games, where the winning expectancy was independently estimated by betting markets. Thus, it was possible to compute the expected and the realized excitement of each given game from the trading data.

Recommended Citation

Vecer, Jan; Ichiba, Tomoyuki; and Laudanovic, Mladen (2007) "On Probabilistic Excitement of Sports Games," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports: Vol. 3 : Iss. 3, Article 6.
DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1066
Available at: http://www.bepress.com/jqas/vol3/iss3/6