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BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR SMOKING CESSATION WITH A LATENT CURE STATE

• Sheng Luo, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Department of Biostatistics
• Ciprian M. Crainiceanu, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Department of Biostatistics
• Thomas A. Louis, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Department of Biostatistics
• Nilanjan Chatterjee, Biostatistics Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health

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Abstract:

We present a Bayesian approach to modeling dynamic smoking addiction behavior processes when cure is not directly observed due to censoring. Subject-specic probabilities model the stochastic transitions among three behavioral states: smoking, transient quitting, and permanent quitting (absorbent state). A multivariate normal distribution for random e ects is used to account for the potential correlation among the subject-specic transition probabilities. Inference is conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. This framework provides various measures of subject-specic predictions, which are useful for policy making, intervention development, and evaluation. Simulations are used to validate our Bayesian methodology, and assess its frequentist properties. Our methods are motivated by, and applied to the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene (ATBC) Lung Cancer Prevention study, a large (29; 133 individuals) longitudinal cohortstudy of smokers from Finland.

Subject Area:

General Biostatistics

Suggested Citation:

Sheng Luo, Ciprian M. Crainiceanu, Thomas A. Louis, and Nilanjan Chatterjee, "BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR SMOKING CESSATION WITH A LATENT CURE STATE" (July 2008). Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers. Working Paper 153.
http://www.bepress.com/jhubiostat/paper153