Presidential Election Forecasts

David A. Walker, Georgetown University

Abstract

This paper contrasts election forecasting models that include macro-economic and financial market variables with forecasts by Fair and the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM), as well estimates made by widely recognized pollsters. The Financial Market Model proposed here incorporates the impact of election year stock market changes, including information about the recent financial crisis. However, the Financial Market Model grossly overestimates the challenger's vote share. The IEM forecast of 53.0 percent, the Fair forecast of 51.9 percent, and the Macro-Economic Market model forecast of 51.5 percent were close to the actual vote share of 53.2 percent for the Democratic nominee, but the Financial Market forecast of 59.4 in this paper would have made the president-elect extremely happy.

Recommended Citation

Walker, David A. (2008) "Presidential Election Forecasts," The Forum: Vol. 6 : Iss. 4, Article 6.
DOI: 10.2202/1540-8884.1277
Available at: http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol6/iss4/art6

 
 
 
 

ISSN: 1540-8884 ©1999-2009 The Berkeley Electronic Press™ All rights reserved.

To submit, subscribe, recommend this journal to your library, or sign up for email alerts, please visit: http://www.bepress.com/forum