Summary

In the wake of the 2004 election, Democrats are weighing their strategies and considering whether to refashion themselves after the victors. If the election is seen as a sweeping rejection of Democratic prospects and values, some have advised the Democrats to reshape their fundamental beliefs. A careful look at underlying economic and political fundamentals reveals a historically small swing toward the incumbent. Based on exit polls and historical data, the major conclusion I draw is that the election was surprisingly unfavorable to incumbent Republican President Bush. His was the smallest non-recession incumbent victory since World War I. Moreover, a look at different economic and demographic groups reveals some surprising swings.

Recommended Citation

Nordhaus, William (2005) "The Profile of An Election, 2004: Outcomes and Fundamentals," The Economists' Voice: Vol. 2 : Iss. 2, Article 3.
DOI: 10.2202/1553-3832.1034
Available at: http://www.bepress.com/ev/vol2/iss2/art3