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Military Expenditure in Post-Conflict Societies Paul Collier, CSAE Anke Hoeffler, CSAE Download the Paper (PDF format) - June 26, 2004 Tell a colleague about it. Printing Tips: Select 'print as image' in the Acrobat print dialog if you have trouble printing. ABSTRACT: Post-conflict situations face a high risk of reversion to conflict. We investigate the effect of military expenditure by the government during the first decade post-conflict on the risk of reversion. We contrast two theories as to the likely effects. In one, military spending deters conflict by reducing the prospects of rebel success. In the other it acts as a signal to the rebels of government intentions. In the signalling model, low military spending signals that the government intends to adhere to the terms of the peace settlement and so reduces the risk of renewed rebellion. We investigate the effects of post-conflict military spending on the risk of conflict, using our existing models of military expenditure and of conflict risk. We find that, consistent with the signalling model, high military spending post-conflict significantly increases the risk of renewed conflict. This effect of military spending is distinctive to post-conflict period, and becomes progressively more pronounced over the decade. SUGGESTED CITATION: Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, "Military Expenditure in Post-Conflict Societies " (June 26, 2004). The Centre for the Study of African Economies Working Paper Series. Working Paper 213. http://www.bepress.com/csae/paper213