A BEJEAP Topics article.

Abstract

Using a selection corrected probit, I estimate the probability that patents will be found valid and infringed at trial. I combine for the first time detailed adjudication data with detailed patent data. I find that the selection effects for validity adjudications and infringement adjudications differ systematically. Additionally, infringement estimates do not appear to suffer from a substantial selection bias. The results highlight the importance of correctly specifying the selection mechanism in policy analysis. In contrast with previous studies, I find that the win rate for patents that go to trial is biased towards 50%. The bias is much more substantial for validity decisions, where I find unconditional win rates of 75% for adjudicated patents and 85% for matched patents. Win rates conditional on adjudication are below 60%.

Submitted: November 3, 2003 · Accepted: July 25, 2004 · Published: September 13, 2004

Originally published in Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy.

Recommended Citation

Marco, Alan C. (2004) "The Selection Effects (and Lack Thereof) in Patent Litigation: Evidence from Trials," Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy: Vol. 4 : Iss. 1, Article 21.
Available at: http://www.bepress.com/bejeap/topics/vol4/iss1/art21